Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.

Effect of Modified Cangfu Daotantang on Metabolism and Pregnancy in Patients with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome / 中国实验方剂学杂志

Objective:To observe the effect of modified Cangfu Daotantang on metabolism and pregnancy in patients with spleen deficiency and phlegm-dampness type polycystic ovary syndrome （PCOS）. Method:One hundred and twelve patients were randomly divided into control group and observation group according to the random number table. Both groups took non-pharmacological interventions， oral metformin hydrochloride， 500mg/time， 3 times/day； oral ethinyl estradiol and cyproterone tablets， 1 tablet/time， 1 time/day， starting from the third to fifth day of menstruation and lasting for twenty-one days， for a total of 3 menstrual cycles. Patients in control group additionally took Erchen pills orally， 10 g/time， 2 times/day， while patients in observation group additionally took modified Cangfu Daotantang orally， 1 dose/day. The course of treatment was six menstrual cycles in both groups （or termination after conception）. The waist-to-hip ratio （WHR）， body mass index （BMI）， insulin resistance index （HOMA-IR）， pancreatic <italic>β</italic>-cell function （HOMA-<italic>β</italic>）， triglycerides （TG）， low-density lipoprotein （LDL） and non-high-density lipoprotein （nHDL） elevation after treatment were compared. The number of ovulation cycles monitored by B-ultrasound （6 menstrual cycles）， ovulation rate， human chorionic gonadotropin （HCG） day endometrial thickness， follicle diameter， cervical mucus score>8 points and endometrial morphology type A rate were measured and recorded. The recovery of menstruation， pregnancy and early miscarriage were recorded. Luteinizing hormone （LH）， estradiol （E₂）， follicle stimulating hormone （FSH）， dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate （DHEAS）， testosterone （T）， anti-Müllerian hormone （AMH） levels， and insulin before and after treatment -Like growth factor-1 （IGF-1）， leptin （LP）， adiponectin （APN）， growth differentiation factor-9 （GDF-9） and tumor necrosis factor-<italic>α</italic> （TNF-<italic>α</italic>） levels were detected. Result:WHR， BMI and HOMA-IR levels of the observation group were lower than those of the control group （<italic>P</italic><0.05， <italic>P</italic><0.01）. HOMA-<italic>β</italic> level was higher than that in the control group （<italic>P</italic><0.01）. The increase rates of LDL， TG， and nHDL in the observation group were 19.61%（10/51），25.49%（13/51），23.53%（12/51）， respectively， lower than 41.18%（21/51），47.06%（24/51），45.10%（23/51）respectively in the control group （<italic>χ</italic>²=5.607， <italic>χ</italic>²=5.131， <italic>χ</italic>²=5.263， <italic>P</italic><0.05）. The menstrual recovery rate in the observation group was 90.20% （46/51）， higher than 72.55% （37/51） in the control group （<italic>χ</italic>²=5.239，<italic>P</italic><0.05）. The observation group had more ovulation cycles than the control group （<italic>P</italic><0.01）. The pregnancy rate in the observation group was 50.98% （26/51）， higher than 31.37% （16/51） in the control group （<italic>χ</italic>²=4.047，<italic>P</italic><0.05）. On HCG day after treatment， the endometrial thickness and follicle diameter in the observation group were better than those in the control group （<italic>P</italic><0.01）. The proportion of patients with cervical mucus score> 8 points was 78.43% （40/51） in the observation group， higher than 56.86% （29/51） in the control group （<italic>χ</italic>²=5.420，<italic>P</italic><0.05）. The intimal morphology type A rate in the observation group was 52.94% （27/51）， higher than 31.37% （16/51） in the control group （<italic>χ</italic>²=4.864，<italic>P</italic><0.05）. The levels of AMH， E₂， DHEAS， LH， T ， IGF-1， LP and TNF-<italic>α</italic> in the observation group were lower than those in the control group （<italic>P</italic><0.01）， while the APN and GDF-9 levels were superior to those in the control group （<italic>P</italic><0.01）. Conclusion:On the basis of conventional western medicine intervention， modified Cangfu Daotantang can regulate abnormal metabolism and reproductive endocrine in patients with PCOS， improve conception， and regulate the expression of IGF-1， GDF-9， adipocytokines and inflammatory factors， improve ovulation and improve pregnancy rate.

Mechanisms of cholic acid for reducing damage to human live cell lines L-O2 induced by amanita toxic peptides / 中华实用儿科临床杂志

Objective To explore the mechanisms of different cholic acid for reducing damage to human liver cells lines L-O2 induced by amanita toxic peptides (amataxins).Methods According to different concentrations of amataxins,the experiment was conducted with different dosages in 5 groups:0.00 g/L,0.26 g/L,0.40 g/L,1.40 g/L and 2.80 g/L.The human liver cells lines L-O2 in the exponential growth phase were cultured into 96-well plates,1 ×103 cells per well After 24 hours,the concentrations of amanita toxic peptides mentioned above were added.The minimum concentration of mushroom toxins keeping the liver cells alive was determined after 24,48 and 72 hours,respectively,and MTT method was used to test each group's liver cell activity.The experiment included 3 groups:the control group,the damage group,and the cholic acid group.Each group had 3 time points:24,48 and 72 hours after being attacked.Twenty four hours after attack,in cholic acid group,cholic acid drugs including taurocholic acid gca,goose deoxycholic acid,gansu ammonia goose deoxycholic acid and bovine goose deoxycholic acid were given,respectively,to protect the injured liver cells.Cells' morphology changes were observed under the inverted phase contrast microscope,living cells were counted by using MTT method,and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) activities in the culture supernatant were tested by the biochemical method.Results The minimum attack concentration of lamanita toxic peptides keeping liver cell survival in vitro was 1.40 g/L.Seventy-two hours after attack by amanita toxic peptides,the absorbance value was 0.812 ± 0.035,0.345 ± 0.021,0.363 ± 0.018,0.387 ± 0.027,0.431 ± 0.018,0.465 ± 0.015 and 0.452 ± 0.030,respectively in the control group,the damage group,the taurocholic acid group,the goose deoxycholic acid group,the glycocholic acid group,the glycochenodeoxycholic acid group and the sodium deoxycholic acid group.Compared with the damage group,absorbance value 72 hours after attack in each cholic acid group gradually increased,and compared with damage group,the differences were statistically significant among goose deoxycholic acid group,glycocholic acid group,glycochenodeoxycholic acid group and sodium deoxycholic acid group(P ＜ 0.05).AST and ALT activity in each cholic acid group declined,and that in glycochenodeoxycholic acid group was the lowest.Compared with the damage group,the difference was statistically significant (P ＜ 0.01).Conclusions Cholic acid can protect human liver cells from the damage induced by amanita toxic peptides.Such effect may be related to the fact that both amanita toxic peptides and cholic acid are the substrates of NTCP and OATP.